The global easing cycle didn’t just pause — it broke.
What was meant to be a coordinated global reset has splintered into a violent macro fracture, aggressively redirecting capital away from exposure to weak regional chokepoints.
Earlier this year, both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank attempted to lead the easing cycle while the Federal Reserve anchored the global restrictive baseline. Then, geopolitical friction escalated, energy logistics tightened, and peripheral central banks found themselves trapped in an architectural containment—forced to halt their cycles or risk accelerating the destruction of their currencies within the lower asset strata.
This is where the baseline macro narrative ends — and where the scenario accelerants begin.